Iraqi Intrigue

The lead article in today’s New York Times, “Plan Would Keep Military in Iraq Beyond Deadline,” boils down the issue about Americans in Iraq to two fundamental questions. Will any troops stay, and if so, how many?

The answer pits hawks against doves, pragmatists against idealists, and all is cast upon the backdrop of required action by the Iraqi government. U.S. military commanders do not believe Iraq is capable of providing for its own security and suggest leaving 14,000 to 18,000 troops there beyond the upcoming deadline of the end of the year.

Meanwhile, President Obama is faced with his own longstanding pledge of going to zero by December 31st and the possibility of disappointing his base by once again after so many compromises during the past three years.

Of course, all this is playing out against the internal politics of the Iraqi government, whose Premier, Nuri al-Maliki, is beholden to Moktada a-Sadr, a violently anti-American cleric.

The current leaked amount of troops to remain is 3,000, a number disappointing to hawkish Senators such as Lieberman, McCain and Graham who prefer the 14K number. Of course, the American Embassy is being greatly expanded with security personnel in any case, and a new Office of Security Cooperation will be fully staffed. Stay tuned for more drama.