Iraqi Democracy?

The lead article in today’s New York Times, “Former Premier Wins Narrowly in Iraq Election,” describes the victory of Ayad Allawi,  a secular candidate, over the current prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki, who is more closely aligned with Shiite religious parties and Iran.

The victory, by two seats, will make it very difficult for Mr. Allawi to form a coalition government, and Mr. Maliki has been claiming fraud and making references to his role as commander in chief of Iraq’s armed forces.

Nevertheless, the current result seems to be holding, raising the possibility of a phenomenal, non-violent transfer of power, generally reserved to much more stable countries such as the United States and Western Europe.

Mr. Maliki’s defeat was largely based on his inability to provide security, and though he won in Baghdad and its sovereign provinces, he lost in the northern regions, among Sunnis and, surprisingly, ran very weakly in Kirkuk, where oil reserves remain a major point of contention.

It would be fabulous if Mr. Allawi and Mr. Maliki could work out a transfer of power, and it would send shock waves throughout the Middle East, where people are generally dominated by much more authoritarian governments. The possible change in policy itself would be amazing as Mr. Allawi is much more anti-American and anti-Iran at the same time.

Time will tell, but there seems to be a glimmer of hope.