Hope for the President

The lead story in The New York Times, “Obama is Faulted by Swing Voters in a New Survey,” while being spun with the typical Obama-is-in-trouble attitude that has become prevalent in today’s media — because it provides interest and connotes a horse race — carries hope for the President in some important aspects.

First of all, and most important, it notes that the economy is starting to improve, bringing some hope for a positive trajectory as Election Day inexorably approaches. Second, the polling suggests that independent voters have yet to form an opinion about Mitt Romney, the probable and strongest Republican nominee. This gives the Democrats an opportunity to define him — and that definition is increasingly spinning into a rich out-of-touch candidate, a member of the one percent, as the OWS protestors convincingly put it.

Most important, it shows an increasing lack of enthusiasm among Republicans for their eventual nominee. While many of them would vote for even Ron Paul over the President, this turnoff on the race translates to a reluctance to volunteer, a critical element in convincing undecided voters in a close election.

And the President has yet to start his full-court press. The campaign is on the verge of bursting into full view, both with a soon-to-be-deluge of advertisements in swing states and the very public State of the Union address scheduled for Tuesday.

And the President has a very convincing case to make and, as a campaigner, the talent needed to communicate it. While the Republican elite is cynically trying to create a bandwagon effect, they may very well find themselves overextended, out on a limb, just as they were caught by their reluctance to renew the payroll tax cut.