Gubernatorial Grab Bag

The lead article in today’s New York Times, “G.O.P. is Poised to Gain in Races for Governor,” shows the potential long-term effects of today’s toxic political environment for incumbents. Democrats may lose a number of state races, including those for governor, and, as a result, lose influence over Congressional redistricting and the ground rules for elections in the 2012 Presidential contest.

All practicing Democrats should remember the way Ohio was stolen in George W. Bush’s reelection campaign, when only a few booths were available in Democratic-leaning urban districts, leading to hours of waiting and discouraging many potential voters. With Republican governors in charge of states such as Iowa, Michigan and Pennsylvania, all key battlegrounds with likely Republican winners, this pattern will be repeated in spades.

Other possible Republican wins may occur throughout the midwest, with a possible sweep a very real possibility. As the article notes, all these victories could affect the implementation of President Obama’s healthcare legislation and many other bills as well.

Finally, the new Republican governors could affect the redistricting based on the recent U.S. census, with effects lasting for a decade. For any Democratic partisan, the timing of this year’s political tsunami is particularly unfortunate.

One can only hope the Democrats will realize the scope of these ramifications and will make it out to the polls. There’s still also time for an October surprise … maybe the capture of Osama bin Laden?