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Wall Street Woes Continue

August 12th, 2010

The lead article in today’s New York Times, “Trouble Abroad Adds to Worries for U.S. Recovery,” describes a broad-based drop in the Dow, down 265 points, after three reports indicating reduced economic growth overseas.

The three reports include a less rosy report from the Bank of England, signs of slowing economic growth in China and trade figures showing a decline in U.S. exports. When combined with the Fed’s decision to pursue quantitative easing, that is, using its portfolio to buy more government securities to keep interest rates low, it was enough to drive investors away from the stock market and into safer U.S. Treasury securities.

For those who fear a double-dip recession, there are increasing indications we may be heading that way. On a quarter-by-quarter basis, growth has slowed from five percent in Q4 2009 to 3.7 percent in Q1 2010 to 2.4 percent in Q2 2010.

The drop in the Dow –265 points equals a 2.5 percent drop — was matched by similar declines in stock markets around the world. Meanwhile, bonds continued to grow.

One wonders when the cascade of bad economic news is going to stop. It is disheartening both for the average American — Main Street — as well as the investor — Wall Street. One day, maybe Wall Street will learn that true economic prosperity will only come when the average American is included in the growth of the economy. When consumers drive two-thirds of economic growth, and those same consumers are increasingly informed by accurate reports depicting their condition in a 24×7 news cycle, the upper class can not achieve the greatest possible prosperity unless it lifts everyone in a rising boat. The days of the rich living in a different world than the rest of us are long over.

G-20 Deficit Deadline

June 28th, 2010

The lead article in today’s New York Times, “G-20 Countries Agree to Halve Budget Deficits,” describes the decision by these nations to cut their deficits in half by 2013. The result of these deliberations clearly turns away from their previous meeting when the emphasis was on increasing spending as a spur to global growth.

The article notes that the decision represented a triumph by Germany’s Prime Minister, Angela Merkel, who, along with the rest of the European Union has been concerned by the economic troubles in Greece and recently had to to contribute heavily to bail them out.

President Obama came into the meeting, as the article notes, with three major triumphs under his belt, including the conference agreement on a financial regulatory bill, the decision by China to stop artificially supporting its currency, and the concurrence of European leaders regarding stress tests for their major banks.

Of course, the timetable on reducing deficits is voluntary as there seems to be no enforcement mechanism for these meetings in any case. And the summit was marred by the usual nihilistic protests that these gatherings seem to engender.

One failure involved the inability to agree on a bank tax.

In any case, for what it’s worth, these conversations do seem to be constructive if only for the understandings they engender among leaders of the world’s major economies.