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European Crisis Offers Opportunities for U.S. Banks

December 26th, 2011

The lead story in today’s New York Times, “American Firms See Europe Woes as Opportunities,” provides a superb case study of how the business world works. Even as the European euro crisis unfolds, American companies are finding investment opportunities overseas and taking advantage of the situation to buy up assets that European banks are trying to unload.

It’s estimated that European banks will need to unload about $3 trillion in assets over the next 18 months in order to meet a requirement by the European Central Bank to improve their balance sheets and increase their “Tier 1 capital ratio” to nine percent of assets.

American banks including JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo as well as U.S. corporations such as Google are finding investment opportunities overseas since the Euro crisis has hurt strong companies with otherwise solid fundamentals. So, in some sense, the United States is coming to the rescue of Europe again, even though it is not being conducted on a government-to-government basis.

And that is how things work in the business world. Companies evaluate whether opportunities are underpriced, and, if so, they swoop in with the hopes of making a profit. It is the data, the impartial evaluation of organizations that can’t be swayed by any hype (positive or negative) that makes a difference.

Germany Conquers Great Britain Without Going to War

December 10th, 2011

The lead article in today’s New York Times, “German Vision Prevails as European Leaders Agree on Fiscal Treaty,” describes a new agreement among European nations with far reaching consequences for the global community.

The pact involves central oversight of member governments with the ability of the European Court of Justice to strike down any law deemed to be fiscally imprudent. This represents a “federalist” type of integration, making the European Union more like the United States in the overarching power of a central government.

The big loser in the agreement was Great Britain, who had already opted out of the Euro, and opposed the current pact as well. While this may protect Great Britain’s financial sector, the protection is bound to be temporary as one country can’t compete against the resources of 17. Great Britain was the only country, either in the Euro zone or outside of it, to end up opposing the agreement.

This was largely the decision of the Conservative head of the British government, David Cameron, and he is bound to take heat for his obstreperousness and short-sighted decision. How Britain can remedy their policy in the future remains to be seen.

There is still the question of providing a financial backstop to prevent current defaults by Spain and Italy, but with the long-range outlook secured, this should fall into place as well.

Euro Uncertainty

December 5th, 2011

The lead article in today’s New York Times, “Leaders Reach for Deal to Keep the Euro Intact,” describes a possible fix for the Euro to be discussed in a meeting today between the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, and the French President, Nicolas Sarkozy. If they are able to resolve major differences, it will be submitted to a European Summit on Thursday.

The tentative package described would boost the bailout fund for countries in trouble, like Italy and Spain (Greece seems to have been written off at this point), and rely on the International Monetary Fund for backup. Other nations, presumably more fiscally secure, would be able to invest in the IMF fund to support the Euro.

The accord would also fundamentally change the European Union, giving oversight responsibilities to a central authority and perhaps limiting the amount of a deficit that any single nation could run.

France and Germany still have somewhat divergent approaches with the French most protective of their sovereignty and the Germans most opposed to quick fixes such as Eurobonds.

Where all this ends remains to be seen, but it does seem clear that whatever happens, it will impact the United States and our own economic recovery.

Fed Fix for Foreign Banks

December 1st, 2011

The lead article in today’s New York Times, “Six Central Banks Act to Buy Time in Europe Crisis,” provides some long needed good news for a possible solution to the European sovereign debt crisis. The Fed made it easier for foreign banks to borrow U.S. dollars, buying more time until a meeting in Brussels on December 8-9. By then, it is expected that a final solution will be reached to prop up the euro, reduce borrowing by Euro zone members and convince investors that the debts of Greece and Italy are manageable.

Of course, almost anything that Ben Bernanke does is open to criticism in the current political environment. Newt Gingrich predictably said that Bernanke shouldn’t be lending to foreign banks when our own economy is so weak. This analysis, of course, fails to account for the impact that the sovereign debt crisis has on U.S. growth.

Of course, this solution is only temporary as it does not address the fundamentals of the situation, just provides some liquidity. But the breathing space may be just what Euro zone nations need, especially through the prevention of a panic that could have taken down the world financial system.

Stocks markets around the world soared at this good news, and we can only hope it will be followed by more.

European Capital Crunch

November 29th, 2011

The lead article in today’s New York Times, “Crisis in Europe Tightens Credit Across the Globe,” describes the impact of the sovereign debt crisis in the Euro zone on other economies including the United States where the growth rate is estimated to slow down to 2 percent next year instead of the expected 3.1.

European banks, who hold a lot of bonds from debt-laden countries such as Italy and Spain, are starting to feel the pinch, even in Germany, an otherwise strong economy. In addition to cutting down on the number of loans, these banks are being required to hold more capital per dollar loaned, an additional restriction.

The impact has particularly affected the airline and shipping industries who need financing for new planes and vessels. Infrastructure projects are also being abandoned, and the ripple effect is reverberating around the globe. Even companies in China are affected by reduced trade with European economies.

The United States seems largely helpless to rectify the situation. We have enough economic problems of our own to worry about, and we can’t swoop in with a Marshall Plan like we did after World War II. It’s hard to see any silver lining in this situation as the extent of the crisis is just too great to lend itself to simple solutions. Maybe, we need to pray.

Greece and Italy: Back from the Brink?

November 11th, 2011

The lead article in today’s New York Times, “Greece and Italy Ask Technocrats to Find Solution,” may represent the first small step of progress in the European sovereign debt crisis. The two developments involve a change of leadership, namely the turning over of the reins of power in both governments to officials with close connections to the European Union: in Greece, Lucas Papademos is a former Vice President of the European Central Bank, and in Italy, Mario Monti is a former European Commissioner.

Whether their ascension to power represents greater cooperation with financial edicts emanating from, in effect, France and Germany remains to be seen. And whether the prescription of greater austerity measures is the best way to solve the European sovereign debt crisis is hotly debated among economists. Many think that the stimulus route attempted at one time by President Obama is the best way to go.

Nevertheless, the change of governments does represent progress and, maybe, Italy and Greece will at least try to solve their economic woes rather than defiantly resisting them. It is true that Italy has adopted a much more fiscally virtuous budget than Greece, but it is plagued with a debt accumulated over many years.

But at least now there is hope.

Italy’s Next

November 10th, 2011

The lead article in today’s New York Times, “Euro Fears Spread to Italy as the Debt Crisis Deepens,” represents a realization of the worst scenario for Euro zone countries and can be described in one word, “contagion.”

In this scenario, the problems in Greece start to have ramifications in other countries, potentially Spain and Portugal, and the ultimate nightmare, Italy. Contagion to Italy is a nightmare because it is the Euro zone’s third largest economy and is too large to either fail or bail out. Failure would lead to a worldwide financial crisis and the possible complete collapse of the Euro. Bailout is just impossible in terms of raising the necessary capital.

The Europeans did create a special bailout fund in the European Financial Stability Facility, but they have been unable to raise even the initial goal of $1.4 trillion. Meanwhile, as Euro zone members huddle to react to this recent run on Italy, the non-Euro zone countries in the European Union warn about taking any steps to change the treaty to their detriment.

What you have, then, is a two-speed Europe, one for the countries using the Euro and one for those who are not. The President of the European Commission, Jose Barroso, called for a rectification of this division by having all countries in the European Union adopt the Euro, but many regard this possibility as utopian.

Unity in Greece?

November 7th, 2011

The lead article in today’s New York Times, “Greek Leaders in Deal to Form New Government,” describes some cooperation at long last with the Europeans who are trying to save them from default.

The unity government will form after the current Prime Minister, George Papandreou, resigns on Monday. It will consist of a non-political leader until the next elections in February when Antonis Samaras, the head of the opposition New Democracy party, will run and most likely win.

Meanwhile, the Greek people still resent what they call the troika of foreign lenders: the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund. And those lenders will be the motivating force behind a series of austerity measures designed to control the deficit and prevent the Greek foreign debt crisis from spreading into Italy.

Italy has a far greater debt situation and economy than Greece, and the European Commission will be unable to bail them out.

In any case, there seems to be some breathing room in the European debt crisis for now, though many predict Greece, and eventually Italy, will be faced with the same situation again down the road.

When that happens, Greece may eventually default and/or withdraw from the European Union.

Papandreou and Parliament

November 5th, 2011

The lead article in today’s New York Times, “Leader of Greece Wins Vote in Push to Save Debt Deal,” shows at least that the fate of European integration is not going to be a Greek tragedy, at least not this year.

The Prime Minister of Greece, George Papandreou, squeaked through a vote of confidence yesterday with 153 votes in a 300-member Parliament, but only after pledging to resign shortly thereafter. The vote of confidence was scheduled after Papandreou suggested holding a referendum on the painstaking negotiations among European leaders to save his country from default.

The idea of a referendum threw worldwide financial markets into a panic and was hastily withdrawn by Mr. Papandreou. The referendum stood a good chance of failing, and all the maneuvering forced Antonis Samaras of the rival New Democracy party to endorse the bailout.

Now, the Greek political scene is a mess, and noone really knows what’s happening. Papandreou seems to have changed his mind about resigning immediately and is now talking about forming a unity government with all Greek parties. Meanwhile, European leaders who struggled so much to save the country are faced with an ungrateful protege as they watch on with bated breath.

It’s thought, however, that the next bailout payout of more than $10 billion will go through, and the country will remain solvent, at least through the end of the year.

The Trojan Horse

November 2nd, 2011

The lead article in today’s New York Times, “Revolt in Greece on Bailout Vote May Oust Leader,” shows that theoretical decisions agreed to in faraway Brussels to save the Euro, and the austerity program they imposed on the Greek people, can backfire when the people themselves express their opinion on the matter.

The surprise decision by the Prime Minister of Greece, George Papandreou, to hold a referendum on the terms imposed by, among others, Angela Merkel of Germany and Nicolas Sarkozy of France, was originally initiated to get the imprimatur of the Greek population to provide political cover for what will be a very difficult transition requiring sacrifice by the public. It appears to have backfired by resulting in the potential fall of the government instead.

Even worse, the inability to get the Greeks to abide by an austerity program to justify their bailout could have a major impact on the possibility of getting larger economies such as Spain and Italy to do the same. Of course, the financial markets weren’t too pleased about any of this.

The no-confidence vote on Mr. Papandreou is scheduled for Friday. He now faces opposition from both sides of the spectrum — Socialists who think he is abandoning the welfare state and those who think he hasn’t done enough to shore up the economy. Both are displeased with the referendum he has proposed.