The lead article in today’s New York Times, “Syria Unleashes Assault to Take an Unbowed City,” describes the continuation of current policy by the Assad regime, to wage a brutal military confrontation with any group, town or city showing any resistance to its rule. Homs, however, represents the center of the rebellion in so many ways. Its largely Sunni population has rallied for the resistance, and the Army has now been called out to subdue them.

It is estimated that more than 100 people have died there in the past five days and, with tanks in the street, citizens are afraid to go outdoors. Shortages have developed for food, fuel and even baby formula. A humanitarian disaster seems to beckon.

The one thing about force is that there is no middle ground, no room for compromise. If the government wins then Assad may have a tense peace but no love from his people. He will continually need to reinforce his rule and will live a haunted life. If the rebels win, then the largely Sunni army (as opposed to Alawite security forces) will quickly defect, dooming all chances for him to remain in power. A trial and execution will be in his future.

The continued force also means the total collapse of the effort by the Arab League to broker a peace. The last chance for reconciliation seems to be over.

The lead article in today’s New York Times, “Activists in Arab World to Define Islamic State,” focuses on the heart of the matter in Islamic societies today. How much can Islam be combined with Western Democracy before the two lose their defining characteristics? Can Islam be reconciled with secular society?

The model everyone seems to point to is Turkey, though Malaysia and Indonesia also reflect the ability for Islam to co-exist within a secular environment. We may, however, be seeing a third model, more Islamic than Turkey, less Islamic than Saudi Arabia, for example.

It should be remembered that the populations of countries affected by the Arab Spring are still heavily Islamic, so in a democratic contest, they might actually vote for some of their freedoms to be taken away.

Tunisia has elections upcoming in October, and Egypt in November. The Islamic parties are the best organized and will definitely win a share of power.

Whether Turkey truly will serve as a role model remains to be seen. Many in the Islamic world have criticized that country’s refusal to criminalize adultery for example. I think if you create a continuum of degrees of Islam, the Arab Spring nations will end up somewhere between Saudi Arabia and Turkey, struggling to define themselves on the fly.