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Cuomo Faced with Conundrum

September 23rd, 2010

The lead story in today’s New York Times, “Cuomo’s Image as Unstoppable Suffers a Blow, describes a conundrum Andrew Cuomo must resolve if he’s going to be elected Governor of New York State. He must decide how to engage Carl Paladino in an effective manner without losing any of his own image in the process.

Paladino has been showing surprising success in recent polls, especially those of likely voters, where he trails Mr. Cuomo by only six points, 49-43. His unorthodox style and willingness to say just about anything is starting to score points with the public who are sick of politics as usual.

And Mr. Cuomo is nothing if not a politician. His career has been distinguished as head of the H.U.D. under Clinton and currently Attorney General. But in a year when politicians are coming under attack regardless of their skills, this background may ultimately prove to be a detriment rather than an asset.

However, in engaging Paladino, Mr. Cuomo must be careful not to descend into a mud-slinging contest where his former reputation for arrogance can reassert itself. Also, Mr. Cuomo may be plagued by a mistake similar to the one that doomed him in his prior run for Governor in 2002 when he said that George Pataki was just “holding the coat” for Rudolph Guiliani during the 9/11 attack.

My advice? Mr. Cuomo should not be afraid to enter the fray but in a professional manner, rebutting Mr. Paladino’s accusations by showing himself to be the adult in the room rather than the child.

Democrats Fight Back

September 20th, 2010

The lead story in today’s New York Times, “Obama Advisers Weigh Offensive Against the G.O.P.,” reveals the Democrats will soon be fighting back against Republican extremism, demonstrated by the recent election of Tea Party candidates in a number of states.

When Christine O’Donnell, the Tea Party and now Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware, has to defend herself against a clip in which she admits experimenting with witchcraft, released by comedian Bill Maher on Friday night, you know the Republicans have gone hard right with a number of questionable characters. Bob Scheifer of CBS News, commenting on Ms.O’Donnell’s cancellation of her scheduled appearance on his show after the witchcraft clip was released, said it was the first time that issue’s come into play.

Anyway, President Obama has scheduled a number of appearances before large crowds to kickstart the Democrats’ campaign, the first on September 28th at the University of Wisconsin. Subsequent rallies will take place in Ohio, Philadelphia and Los Angeles, with a town hall event in October. A national ad campaign for cable TV is under consideration as well, though the DCCC and DSCC are ambivalent about nationalizing races when they have been focusing on local issues.

The only discouraging element about this article for Democrats involves the imminent depart of Rahm Emanuel who may decide to run for Mayor of Chicago. One hopes he will stay strategically active for the coming campaign at least.

Tweedledum and Tweedledee?

September 16th, 2010

The lead article in today’s New York Times, “Challengers Mine a Deep Discontent Among Voters,” shows that the midterm elections can still go either way. Though President Obama hasn’t made much headway in improving the economy, most voters blame the Bush administration for the Great Recession and say that the Republican’s ideas for solving it are worse than the Democrats.

Congressional Democrats receive very poor ratings, with Congressional Republicans even worse. And while there are many seeming indicators of a wave election — the country is viewed on the wrong track and voters are dissatisfied with their own Congressional representative — the anger seems to be aimed at incumbents of both parties; the average citizen views the difference between the Democrats and Republicans as tweedledum and tweedledee.

Still, things can change dramatically in just a few weeks. Look for President Obama to become more outspoken as his back is against the wall — he typically waits for the last moment before rushing in and saving the day. I think he’s still holding back prior to a last-minute push to save the House.

And when the President truly enters campaign mode, he can change the mood of the country in just a few weeks. And he only needs to swing a few percentage points to keep the House. However, if he started campaigning too soon, he would give the Republicans too much time for a rebuttal.

That is the way I think things will play out in the next few weeks.

Tea Party Invades New York

September 15th, 2010

The lead article in today’s New York Times, “G.O.P. Newcomer, in Jolt, Wins Governor’s Primary,” shows how much the Tea Party movement has spread into every corner of the nation.

The winner, Carl Paladino, upset a well-known establishment figure, Rick Lazio, a former Congressman who had challenged Hillary Clinton in a race for the New York Senate. The victory shows how the entire Republican Party, even in the Northeast where moderates are typically favored, has swung to the right in a seeming purge of its ranks.

Whether this phenomenon is comparable to the lemmings rushing off the cliff to their imminent demise remains to be seen. The activists are nothing if not genuine in their beliefs, and genuineness has been missing among a large segment of our politicians for a long time now.

Independents, who are generally not ideological, can typically be led by people who can articulate a consistent message in a convincing manner. The emphasis by the Tea Party on returning to the values of the Constitution, even if incorrectly promulgated, appeals and uses many of the arguments and symbols of the Founding Fathers.

If the Tea Party truly enters into the major leagues of American politics, it will have to score victories in general elections as well as primaries. This would complete its “hostile takeover” of the Republican Party. Whether it can do so, remains to be seen.

The Thrill of Victory and the Agony of Defeat

May 19th, 2010

The lead story in the New York Times this morning, “Specter, Running as Democrat, Ousted in Pennsylvania Primary,” describes the election results last night in Pennsylvania, Arkansas and Kentucky, and the title of this blog post provides an apt description of the turn of events.

What must it have felt like for Arlen Specter, who endured all the trauma of switching parties, and received assurances from the entire Democratic establishment, from President Obama on down? How about Trey Grayson who was supported by the Republican establishment in Senator Mitch McConnell? And Blanche Lincoln, the head of the agricultural committee, forced into a runoff?

Despite the efforts of some to portray the mood of the electorate as anti-Obama, there is clearly frustration among the grassroots in both political parties. And the results last night indicate how both Parties have been pushed to their respective extremes. This can be ascribed to numerous causes including gerrymandering and other structural factors.

Kudos, however, to Joe Sestak who ran a brilliant campaign. And the guy has some guts, too, sacrificing his Congressional seat for an effort that at the beginning looked like a real long shot. Sestak’s future is bright and may be unlimited. He was described on MSNBC last night as a diamond in the rough.

Now we’re on to a turbulent five-month campaign for control of the House and Senate. Expect the unanticipated.